My review for task 3: Laszlo Bartucz's post

http://mba6030-2015-laszlo-bartucz.blogspot.com.au/2015/04/uncertainty-biases-in-personal-and.html?showComment=1429935411649#c1738621647563785971

My review for task 3: April Beeton's Post

http://aprilslearningportfolio.blogspot.com.au/2015/04/task-3-decision-making-issues.html?showComment=1429197184232#c8472988620242342281

My review for task 1: Laszlo Bartucz's Post

http://mba6030-2015-laszlo-bartucz.blogspot.com.au/2015/03/decisionmaking-typologies-simons.html?showComment=1429194993859#c3558701258071189902

Task 5- Contemporary technology responses- Personal decision making tools

 

 

Two Interesting things I've learned about overconfidence

Overconfidence reflects a natural tendency to overestimate our abilities and perceived chances of success (Russo & Schoemaker, 2008). The most interesting things I've learned about overconfidence is that overconfidence has unexpected consequences beyond the decision makers imagination, such as losing your career or losing confidence after multiple wrong decisions. I've also learned that overconfidence is caused by numerous reasons other than human psychology; this is due to cognitive causes which include availability, anchoring, confirmation bias and hindsight.

How overconfidence influence decision making

Overconfidence usually influence our decision making, it creates a bias decision and potentially distorts the estimation of the problem. People overestimate their abilities and chances of success. Individuals who are successful at a task are more likely to believe, mistakenly, that they will continue to be successful under new conditions and therefore they make the wrong decisions without realizing the consequences (Russo & Schoemaker, 2008).  

How to reduce the influence of overconfidence on decision making at my work place 

We have high staff turnover due to the nature of aviation and shift work. The newly trained employees start with overconfidence because they quickly grasp the primary knowledge from the training. Those employees become overconfidence after a week or two of working solo, they overestimate their knowledge and they miss to factor uncertainty into their judgments. As a result the employees make decisions that lead to all sorts of errors, security breaches, safety breaches and aircrafts delays. As management, we spontaneously give feedback to new employees, this only when the supervisors report the problem.   

In order to reduce the influence of overconfidence on decision making at my work place, I need to work on applying an accelerated feedback process to newly trained employees. For instance, this can be done by giving them a feedback after the training is completed, then a week after they work solo, and then once a month for the next six months. Hopefully after giving them good quality feedback, it will reduce their overconfidence with the decision they make, therefore, it will reduce mistakes. However, I need to conduct a leadership sessions for the senior staff and supervisors in order to improve their decision making and leadership skills. This because experience staff and supervisors overconfidence with their decisions can cause an undesirable outcomes that can be avoided if they managed to make the right decision. Supervisors working in the aviation continuously making instant decisions due to the nature of work and for being fast pace environment, no time to waste. Therefore, supervisors that work in such industry needs to be vigilent and good decision makers.

In addition, I believe accountability is critical way to reduce staff overconfidence at my workplace. Usually when a staff member or a supervisor make the wrong decision, we circulate an email to all staff explaining to them the mistake and the consequences of their decision. Sometimes we debrief the team after the flight departure to avoid such mistakes in decision making in the future. However, in order to reduce overconfidence, we can apply an accountability process. The accountability process can include a corrective action as well as a disciplinary action. This way the staff will be held accountable, and it will reduce their overconfidence by recalling that they are accountable if anything went wrong.

 

Reference

Russo, J.E, & Schoemaker, P.J. (1992). Managing Overconfidence. Sloan Management Review, 33 (2).

Task 4- Methodologies and tools for solving complex prblems: soft systems, dialogue mapping, IBIS, satisficing.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9tldV0WKNETYmJLZXFtN2wyS2c/view?usp=sharing

My review for task 2: April Beeton's post

http://aprilslearningportfolio.blogspot.com.au/2015/03/task-2-inputs-to-decision-making-data.html?showComment=1427721720505#c2884301621642153659

Task 3- Decision making issues- uncertainty, biases, in personal and group decision making

 

 

I classify my thinking process as SYSTEM TWO, in which, I think rationally considering facts and I put effort before making a decision. However, the following story will examine my decision making under the influence of decision bias.

Being the duty manager at the airport, I usually make the final decision of any issue or challenge for our client airlines. The issue started with the load controller on the next shift being sick and his spot was uncovered. This means that no aircraft could depart without producing a load sheet by a certified load controller. The next load controller doesn't start work until five hours later.

All load sheets for schedule departures are produced by the previous load controller apart from one departure. I arrived to work, there was one load controller on shift but he was about to complete his shift as he already worked 12 hours. The load controller on shift explained me how to produce the load sheet. He convinced me that I can produce the load sheet although I wasn't certified. However, if anything went wrong, it would've caused a big issue. He influenced my decision by making it sound like it is an easy job and nothing will go wrong, I wasn't comfortable and I did not feel in control at all.

I had to decide between offloading 200 passengers or produce a load sheet in which I am not qualified to do. Finally, under the influence of framing bias and the fear of the consequences of offloading the passengers I choose to produce the load sheet. My heart was beating fast and I was shaking. I should not have done it and I wouldn't do if it ever happens again. 

In group decision making, the fears of the truth by other group members distorts me the most, particularly at work. This is because each group member has his/her own agenda; this shifts away the real solution. 

In order to tackle the problem, we have to be truthful about the cause, even if we are personally responsible for the cause. Lots of managers like to avoid the real problem instead of being responsible, admitting the mistake and finding ways to resolving it.

I believe communication and politics at the work place can improve the solutions of such problems. For instance, if the manager who makes the final decision trusts my judgment then he/she would probably listen to my opinion, when I talk to him/her in private. This way I can influence the manager's decision before having a group meeting. I can form some sort of lobbying in order to manipulate the group decision.