Task 5- Contemporary technology responses- Personal decision making tools

 

 

Two Interesting things I've learned about overconfidence

Overconfidence reflects a natural tendency to overestimate our abilities and perceived chances of success (Russo & Schoemaker, 2008). The most interesting things I've learned about overconfidence is that overconfidence has unexpected consequences beyond the decision makers imagination, such as losing your career or losing confidence after multiple wrong decisions. I've also learned that overconfidence is caused by numerous reasons other than human psychology; this is due to cognitive causes which include availability, anchoring, confirmation bias and hindsight.

How overconfidence influence decision making

Overconfidence usually influence our decision making, it creates a bias decision and potentially distorts the estimation of the problem. People overestimate their abilities and chances of success. Individuals who are successful at a task are more likely to believe, mistakenly, that they will continue to be successful under new conditions and therefore they make the wrong decisions without realizing the consequences (Russo & Schoemaker, 2008).  

How to reduce the influence of overconfidence on decision making at my work place 

We have high staff turnover due to the nature of aviation and shift work. The newly trained employees start with overconfidence because they quickly grasp the primary knowledge from the training. Those employees become overconfidence after a week or two of working solo, they overestimate their knowledge and they miss to factor uncertainty into their judgments. As a result the employees make decisions that lead to all sorts of errors, security breaches, safety breaches and aircrafts delays. As management, we spontaneously give feedback to new employees, this only when the supervisors report the problem.   

In order to reduce the influence of overconfidence on decision making at my work place, I need to work on applying an accelerated feedback process to newly trained employees. For instance, this can be done by giving them a feedback after the training is completed, then a week after they work solo, and then once a month for the next six months. Hopefully after giving them good quality feedback, it will reduce their overconfidence with the decision they make, therefore, it will reduce mistakes. However, I need to conduct a leadership sessions for the senior staff and supervisors in order to improve their decision making and leadership skills. This because experience staff and supervisors overconfidence with their decisions can cause an undesirable outcomes that can be avoided if they managed to make the right decision. Supervisors working in the aviation continuously making instant decisions due to the nature of work and for being fast pace environment, no time to waste. Therefore, supervisors that work in such industry needs to be vigilent and good decision makers.

In addition, I believe accountability is critical way to reduce staff overconfidence at my workplace. Usually when a staff member or a supervisor make the wrong decision, we circulate an email to all staff explaining to them the mistake and the consequences of their decision. Sometimes we debrief the team after the flight departure to avoid such mistakes in decision making in the future. However, in order to reduce overconfidence, we can apply an accountability process. The accountability process can include a corrective action as well as a disciplinary action. This way the staff will be held accountable, and it will reduce their overconfidence by recalling that they are accountable if anything went wrong.

 

Reference

Russo, J.E, & Schoemaker, P.J. (1992). Managing Overconfidence. Sloan Management Review, 33 (2).